The sector expects a drop to minimum levels in the fourth quarter due to outages caused by works on the network and the impact of the DANA

The freight rail business is preparing for a year-end that is expected to be “disastrous”, according to one of its sources. According to what has been reported to this publication, the concatenation of effects that have impacted several strategic corridors in the fourth quarter is likely to sink the train share to a minimum in that period and at the start of 2025. These are unforeseen phenomena, such as the DANA in Valencia, with its consequences on the connection with Madrid , or planned works projects on the network, such as the cut in Roda de Berà (Tarragona) and those that will arrive with a high incidence throughout the next half year. The analysis comes in parallel with the latest data published by the National Commission of Markets and Competition (CNMC), but corresponding to the third quarter, and which already reflect a decline in volumes and income compared to 2023. However, “the worst is yet to come”, the same sources have estimated.

The business confirms the transfer of clients from rail transport to road transport

Several railway sector players have regretted the concentration of track cuts in the final stretch of the year, which are also introduced and progressively affect traffic. The cut in Tarragona, which Adif is carrying out as part of the works for the Mediterranean Corridor, started on October 1, and only 14 days later significant impacts were already known on the Barcelona-Zaragoza corridor, one of the main corridors in Spain for freight. The forecast is to maintain the cut until March 3, that is, a large part of the first quarter of 2025. The adaptation of the layout of the future railway highway between Seville, Madrid and Zaragoza is also gaining momentum in the coming months, with recurring cuts on two other key corridors in the country. The voices of the business have noted that all this is leading more and more shippers to abandon trains and move to the road, an extreme that they have been warning about all year .

Even though the CNMC has not yet calculated these effects, the trend is already downwards so far in 2024. The 7,043 million net tonne-kilometres accumulated by the railways up to September represent a 2% decline compared to the same period in 2023. And that year already marked, in turn, a decline compared to the previous year . The approximately 240 million euros invoiced by the companies that articulate this market in Spain are 1.2% below the figure for September 2023, of just over 243 million euros. In fact, the sector's revenues have experienced a sharp decline quarter on quarter, of 8.3%, and the 76.2 million euros they have marked in the third period of the year are also lower than those of the previous year (-2.7%).

If we look at the aggregate figures, without breaking them down by company, there are only a few green shoots in the quarterly tonne-kilometres: their volume of 2,255 million represents a flat year-on-year figure of 0.3%, driven by the slight increase in full wagons (+1.3%, 882 million). But both net tonnes (-3.2%) and train-kilometres (-1.6%), the other indicators used by the CNMC, have fallen back compared to their performance in the third quarter of last year.

RENFE'S SHARE HITS A LOW
According to sources in the railway market, the market has been showing a "flat" performance in the last six months, which causes transfers of market share on volumes that have barely changed. This would have aggravated the decline of the public operator, Renfe Mercancías, which has hit a "historical low" in the third quarter of 2024, according to the CNMC. Specifically, Renfe has fallen 13.8% year-on-year, remaining with a market share of 38% in the third quarter of 2024. It is the first time that it has fallen below the 40% share in history. According to the CNMC quarterly report, Captrain would have improved 15.4% compared to its position in 2023, and already holds 21% of the market.

The largest year-on-year increase belongs to Medway, which rose by 56.4%, while Transfesa has fallen by 22.6% year-on-year and represents a 5% share.

In this quarter, Renfe has lost 13.8% of the tonne-kilometres it transported in the same period of 2023, and has been left with a total of 867 million. The loss is especially pronounced in its intermodal volumes, which fell by 23.7%. In fact, the public company moves 354 million tonne-kilometres, not much more than the 332 that Continental Rail (CMA CGM) has registered in the same period. Captrain (SNCF) achieves a year-on-year increase of 42% in terms of intermodal transport (223 million). Although it contracts 1.2% of its volume in full wagon, it maintains a total growth of 15.4% year on year and is behind Renfe with 473 million tonne-kilometres.

Continental Rail achieved a total of 339 million tonne-kilometres moved in the period, a volume that is almost exclusively due to intermodal transport. The company has grown by 2.8% in this segment, thus offsetting the declines in full wagonloads (-12.5%). The company that most boosted its volumes between the third quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024 is Medway: the MSC subsidiary, with 219 million tonne-kilometres, grew by 56.4%. Although its growth is broad in full wagonloads (+182%), the largest volume corresponds to its intermodal traffic (163 million tonne-km), which also improved by 35.8% year-on-year. Transfesa, for its part, continues to lose ground in intermodal, where it has recorded a fall of 36% year-on-year. Despite its increase in full wagonloads, its total volumes plummeted by 22.6% year-on-year. The rest of the companies operating in the Spanish market have achieved a year-on-year increase of 15.3% thanks also to the performance of the intermodal wagon, which together account for 219 million tonne-kilometres, 17.7% more than a year ago.