Rail container volume between China and Europe shows 22% decline
Author: Dennis van der Laan
11-08-2025 | Container transportation on the China-Europe rail route, including both the northern route and the Middle Corridor, is lagging behind last year’s numbers. Volatile maritime shipping rates seem to be behind much of the development.
The amount of containers transported via rail between China and Europe in the first half of 2025 is down by 22%, according to a report by the Eurasian Rail Alliance Index. In total, 160,600 TEU moved across Eurasia between January and June 2025.
That means that 2025 is not on track to beat 2024. Over the entire year, 2024 saw nearly 430,000 TEU moved between China and Europe via rail. At the current pace, 2025 will fall short of that at around 320,000 TEU.
Container rates
It must be noted, however, that the summer of 2024 contributed significantly to the year’s end result of 430,000 TEU. Yet, the large summer volumes also coincided with a spike in maritime container shipping rates. To the contrary, in 2025, those rates have been decreasing (with the exception of tariff-related shocks) and are projected to continue on that same path, meaning that rail will face serious competition from maritime transportation in the foreseeable future.
However, container rate monitor WCI Drewry points out that “the volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on Trump’s future tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain.” In other words, US-China trade policies could brick higher rates back at any moment.
The Middle Corridor is the first victim
With the contraction in the volume of containers travelling via rail between China and Europe, it seems to be mostly the Middle Corridor that is losing out. Its share of total container traffic peaked at 21% in February 2025, after consistently having scored double digits since May 2024.
February’s record 21% was then followed by 8% and 9% in April and May. The downturn in the Middle Corridor’s share is not entirely surprising: it remains more expensive than the northern route through Russia and Belarus, and so it is the first route to suffer from outside competition. June brought a slightly better result, with 13% of total rail container traffic moving along the Middle Corridor.